Bank research desks are signaling a shift toward tighter monetary policy as economic resilience and persistent inflation persist across global markets. UBS now expects two 25-basis-point rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in 2026 following August nonfarm payroll growth of 162,000. Westpac has revised its outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia, projecting a 25-basis-point hike to 4.6% in November 2026, while also anticipating the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will reach a 4% peak rate in 2027. BNP Paribas reports K-shaped growth in the United States and varied performance across the Eurozone, noting that both the FOMC and the European Central Bank are expected to maintain or tighten rates. Meanwhile, OCBC Macro Research highlights that Euro-area inflation has climbed to 3.3%, fueling expectations of an ECB rate hike amid broader global geopolitical tensions. Synthesized from 75 manifests produced by 32 monitored public bank-research sources in the last 7 days, including J.P. Morgan, Standard Chartered, Charles Schwab.
Answer updated Sep 09, 2026 00:17 UTC · rebuilt twice daily from the rolling 168-hour window
Forecast update: firmer growth, higher cash rate
Westpac has revised its RBA policy outlook, now projecting a 25bp rate hike in November 2026 to 4.6% as its base case. This shift reflects stronger-than-anticipated household resilience and a significant investment pipeline in data centers and renewable energy. While GDP growth forecasts have been upgraded, the bank ma
RBNZ September 2026 Monetary Policy Statement
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) increased the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.75% in its September 2026 meeting. Westpac economists anticipate a pause in October followed by another 25 basis point hike in December, with a projected peak of 4% in 2027. The RBNZ's decision reflects a consensus vie
Weekly Macro Views: Global Economic Resilience and Regional Inflationary Pressures
Global markets face a complex landscape as US-Iran geopolitical tensions escalate alongside surprisingly resilient economic data. While US nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, Euro-area inflation climbed to 3.3%, prompting expectations of an ECB rate hike. Across Asia, central banks are navigating a mix of robus
The nowcasts, updated scenario and forecasts of the Economic Research - 7 September 2026
BNP Paribas reports resilient Q3 growth across the Eurozone, though regional performance varies significantly. The US economy shows K-shaped growth with persistent inflation, while China faces a widening gap between export strength and domestic demand fragility. Central banks, including the FOMC and ECB, are expected t
Strong US jobs data likely to tip the balance for the Fed
Strong August US labor data, with nonfarm payrolls reaching 162,000, has prompted UBS to shift its base case for the Federal Reserve. The firm now expects two 25-basis-point rate hikes in 2026, citing resilient economic activity and persistent inflation risks. Despite the hawkish pivot, UBS maintains a constructive out